Well Known Biases

Politics, Economics, and the Law

A New War, Just in Time

It would seem that war with Iran is now all but inevitable. The European Union is planning to boycott all Iranian oil by July, and Iran has stated that it will definitely blockade the Strait of Hormuz if this embargo disrupts their crude exports, which seems more likely than not. Meanwhile, the United States has deployed troops to Israel, deployed troops to Kuwait, is building military hospitals and airstrips in Georgia, and as ever, maintains a battle group in the area. Who’s in for a betting pool on how long before someone starts shooting?

A more cynical man might question the timing of all of this, and wonder how long before the current administration begins with variations of “Don’t change horses mid-stream” ?

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