Politics, Economics, and the Law
Another day, another step closer to conflict with Iran.
Due to their refusal to kowtow to American demands, U.S. legislators are working on yet more sanctions against the nation, and an American submarine and destroyer have moved into the area, almost certainly headed for the Persian Gulf. The whole exercise is a bit of a paint-by-numbers, with propaganda, increasing sanctions, and moving forces into striking distance. It’s the same song and dance that preceded the invasion of Iraq, just more. I suspect that our government neither expects these sanctions to achieve their ostensible goals, nor genuinely cares. Sanctions are simply a tick-box that needs checked before we can be “justified” in overt military action.
There may be large flies in our ointment, though. There is a piece on Fox asserting that China is arming the Iranians, by funneling weapons and technology through the North Koreans. I’m intensely skeptical of anything on Fox, as they’re deeply loyal to the (conservative) establishment, but it is a possibility worth considering. If the Chinese are arming the Iranians with ICBMs and related tech, and if the Iranians have acquired nuclear warheads, then going to war could prove quite costly. At the moment I’m no more sold on this than I was on the Iraqi WMDs, but it’s something to consider. Michel Chossudovsky, Director for the Centre for Research on Globalization, goes further, asserting that China, which imports most of its oil from Iran, would back Iran in a conflict with the West, and push us into a world war. It’s a point for debate whether China needs us or them more, but should they decide on ‘them,’ then they possess an unimaginably powerful weapon: They could liquidate their holdings of American debt, and crash the dollar.
While myself and others object to conflict with Iran on moral as well as practical grounds, and do not consider them a legitimate threat to American security, I fear that a great many more Americans have swallowed the media Kool-Aid, and believe intervention is justified and necessary. Even if the public at large doesn’t believe this, the ruling classes have made it plain that they have every intention of going to war. While I very much hope to be wrong, I have every expectation that this war is now inevitable.
It would seem that war with Iran is now all but inevitable. The European Union is planning to boycott all Iranian oil by July, and Iran has stated that it will definitely blockade the Strait of Hormuz if this embargo disrupts their crude exports, which seems more likely than not. Meanwhile, the United States has deployed troops to Israel, deployed troops to Kuwait, is building military hospitals and airstrips in Georgia, and as ever, maintains a battle group in the area. Who’s in for a betting pool on how long before someone starts shooting?
A more cynical man might question the timing of all of this, and wonder how long before the current administration begins with variations of “Don’t change horses mid-stream” ?
A few links from Russia Today, concerning U.S.-Iranian relations.
I intend to dedicate some internet to a proper discussion of Iran, and the impending war with them, but for the moment I’ll just leave these here.